The Thompson Tease

I watched the GOP Debates last night and was pretty impressed with Governor Romney. In fact he was the clear winner on style and presentation. Unfortunately for Romney the term "flip-flopper" was coined by Republican operatives who know how to use the word and pin it on you if they want.

He will get hammered when it comes to his campaign comments on abortion, universal health care, and the like. I guess conservatives just get skeptical of anyone from Massachusetts, and we'll see if presentation can rule the day. Romney certainly hasn't had a problem raising cash. Cash is king in politics so he is a player in this race for sure.

At this point I think conservatives have more respect for Giuliani than Romney. He has at least remained true to his core beliefs though many will not agree. If he's going to remain pro-choice, however, he needs to come up with a more concise response if he has any chance.

He is probably the first presidential candidate the libertarian wing of the party can get excited about. I have much sympathy and respect for the libertarians, so we'll see if they show up in the caucuses that have normally been the social conservative domain.

McCain I think ended the debate strong and he should start moving into the front position as we see Rudy start to fade. It was a good night for McCain overall.

The other clear winner last night I think was Senator Fred Thompson who hasn't declared and wasn't there. I think his strategy of continuing to build suspense is working very well and the other campaigns will have to address it. I've not heard any of the campaigns addressing "The Thompson Tease" and they run the risk of being overwhelmed.

The lack of Newt or mention of his name was also noticeable.

Friday, May 4, 2007

(05-04) 16:26 PDT Newport Beach (Orange County) -- Millions of Americans know him as "Law & Order's" take-charge District Attorney Arthur Branch, and he's played statesman-like characters ranging from the CIA director to General Ulysses S. Grant, but is actor Fred
Thompson really auditioning to become president of the United States?

That is the political drama unfolding the day after 10 Republican presidential hopefuls held their first televised debate and as Thompson, 65, a former Tennessee senator, prepared to address an audience of 400 at the Lincoln Club of Orange County.

With eight months until the first 2008 presidential primaries and caucuses, and an already-packed field of GOP presidential hopefuls, Thompson's entry into the campaign would dramatically reshape the race. Polls show that Thompson -- although not yet a candidate -- already places third behind Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

The polls are evidence, some Republicans say, of just how many of the party's faithful voters are hungry for new choices.

"He may have been the real winner of (Thursday's) GOP debate,'' said Pete Snyder, CEO of Washington D.C.-based New Media Strategies. Snyder said the advance buzz regarding Thompson's Friday night appearance in Orange County was something other Republican candidates would love to have.

Still, some GOP insiders are reluctant to even talk about Thompson because he is stealing attention from the declared Republican candidates.

"He's not a candidate,'' California state Republican Party Chairman Ron Nehring said when asked about Thompson this week. "It's like trying to comment on what the weather is going to be in another month.''

The actor and conservative politician's voice and strong demeanor have drawn comparisons to the late President Ronald Reagan. Conservatives particularly seem to be drawn to Thompson for his record on social issues, such as his opposition to abortion and gun control, and his background as a former federal prosecutor.

Thompson, who retired from the Senate after eight years in 2002, has fueled intense speculation about his political future with his appearance at the influential Lincoln Club timed for one day after the nationally television debate. Many see Thompson's speech as a dry run for a presidential announcement that could come as early as June.

Rival political campaigns are watching Thompson's moves closely.

McCain, one of the leading GOP contenders, said this week that he believes Thompson, a friend and former colleague, will run for the GOP nomination. One McCain strategist said polls show Thompson could shave 1 or 2 percentage points from the Arizona senator, but is likely to steal more supporters from former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, another candidate who is depicting himself as a standard bearer for conservatives.

Despite Snyder's point of view, other Republican consultants think the debate at the Reagan presidential library in Simi Valley introduced many of the current candidates to the country for the first time and may have probably stole some of Thompson's thunder.

"Fred might see that after the debate, a little of the vacuum has been filled,' said veteran GOP strategist Mike Murphy said.

With McCain delivering a strong performance, Giuliani weighing in on terrorism, and Romney perceived as giving a winning effort, "the voltage has been turned down a bit" for Thompson, and "a little of his sizzle has been de-sizzled,'' Murphy said.

Now that Republicans have heard from their candidates on issues such as abortion, the Iraq war and the Reagan legacy, they may not be as interested in a Republican who hasn't yet committed to the contest, he said.

Many Republican at the debate openly wondered how Thompson will be able to catch up in fund-raising and organization with his competitors. He is rumored to be looking for campaign operatives and has suggested he will be able to launch a strong Internet campaign effort in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire.

Still, some Republican insiders say the actor-candidate deserves watching -- because his background and his political skills are so different from the rest of the pack, all traditional candidates who have spent most of their adult lives in politics.

"Thompson is none of the above,'' says Hoover Institution fellow Bill Whalen. "I hear a lot of people buzz about him and talk about him in Reaganesque terms. He's telegenic, he has a presidential presence and (people) like the sound of his voice and his Southern accent,'' he said.

"But what's missing from the equation is the beliefs.''

"I have no idea what he'll be running on,'' Whalen said, "other than the fact that he's not Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain.''

Already, Thompson appears keenly aware of the pitfalls the GOP front runners have faced: subjected to far more criticism, scrutiny and political backstabbing that is likely to erode poll numbers as the campaign continues.

His strategy appears to be to keep the drama -- will he or won' he? -- running as long as possible.

In today's tough political arena, "the best way to run for president these days is not to run for president," Whalen said. "The moment you announce, you drop. And a lot of candidates have learned that the hard way.''


San Francisco Chronicle
Is Thompson entering the presidential race?
Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer
Friday, May 4, 2007