Dark Blue: Sams +10%Dark Red: Ingebrigtsen +10%
Light Blue & Red victories by less than 10%
I should lay out a few credentials here on my qualifications for analyzing campaigns. I have been a part of many winning campaigns. I have been apart of congressional, state, and local campaigns in various capacities. My wife was chair of the Todd County Republican Party, and by default we worked many campaigns over the four years.
On a side note, because this is online I am not going to give away the important information and strategy, but stick to the general idea of why we are starting to have hope. I also want to inspire people to call the State Republican Party and encourage them to look at the charts and numbers.
After having learned the keys to a successful campaign in college and elsewhere I did win my own campaign here in Clarissa. I also chaired a number of winning campaigns in this area and elsewhere. I enjoy the art of politics; and political strategy is one of those arts.
Some are addicted to drinking, smoking, or maybe drugs. My fix is political analysis and strategy. Yes my parents prayed for the respectable addition like drugs or alcohol. They wanted something they could at least explain to family and friends. I am sure I am still in their prayers. I hope they have gotten over most of the disappointment. But I digress......
Elections do not require as much money as people think. If you asked me if I would like to be apart of a well thought out campaign with little money, or a well funded campaign with no plan I would choose the well organized campaign with little money.
Campaigning requires time and the ability to meet personally with voters. If a candidate can put both of those qualities together effectively a winning campaign will occur on election night. The various media forms are important but not as important as the local one-on-one contact.
You may be wondering why I am showing you the Senate 11 map and saying there is hope for Republicans in 11B. After I looked at the numbers prior to the 2006 election these trends played out better than I could have imagined.
The Republican Senate Caucus helped with some key pieces of media targeting. If you see the result we have an Incumbent (Dallas Sams) who lost the southern part of Todd County and was beaten badly in the 11B section of Douglas County.
I think this model can hold true on Mary Ellen with the right candidate. I thought Austin Bleess in a normal election year would have seen this chart or something similar to it. However, 2006 was not a normal political environment for Republicans. I am convinced had the Republican House Caucus also supported the Bleess effort we might be looking at a very different political landscape today.
However, what we are left with this time around is HOPE. David Kircher needs to look at this map to begin his strategy efforts. If he can pull this same chart off and capitalize on his connections around his Commissioner District he has a real shot if national and state politics remain irrelevant.
One area to consider that is different from the Senate strategy is how to deal with a staunchly Democrat northern county because it is more relevant statistically in the 11B race.
I heard Michael Barrett say that the State Republicans might be targeting MEO today at the convention. I would like for someone to confirm that because I have heard the opposite from people in the know down in St. Paul. I hope they are looking at this chart. At a minimum Kircher needs to take this chart and convince the party down in St. Paul now that he has the nomination in hand.
